Housing May Turn the Corner in 2012: CoreLogic

CoreLogic’s chief economist Mark Fleming says housing statistics and the duration of the downturn to date indicate 2012 may be the year the housing market begins to turn the corner.

In the first release of CoreLogic’s new MarketPulse newsletter Wednesday, Fleming explained his rationale for such an assessment.

He notes that housing is an industry with long business cycles. Regional housing recessions have typically taken anywhere from three to five years to find their bottom, and Fleming says the national housing recession has behaved similarly in that it has bounced along a bottom for the past two years.

Fleming points out that housing affordability is rising dramatically due to a combination of home price deflation and rock-bottom mortgage rates. In fact, he says, after adjusting for inflation, this has been a “lost decade” for housing as prices are the same as at the beginning of the millennium.

“The time is right in 2012 for prices to begin growing again,” Fleming said, “and housing affordability will put a floor under any further significant declines.”

Fleming says he will be watching the spring and summer buying season closely for positive signs of demand.

He points out that households are paying off their debts and at the same time accessing credit more easily, with some even adding Home Equity Lines of Credit in the third quarter of last year – the first such movement for these second-lien mortgage products since the financial crisis began.

Fleming cites a quarterly survey by the New York Federal Reserve Bank, which shows total household debt continues to decline. At the same time, consumer sentiment rebounded strongly in the latter part of 2011, posting a six-month high in December – an indication that consumers’ confidence in the strength of the economy is growing, according to Fleming.

Most housing statistics basically moved sideways in the latter part of 2011, but Fleming finds several positives in the numbers. Although market indicators are coming off of very low levels, he notes that both existing-home sales and single-family housing starts have begun to increase, homebuilder confidence is improving, and affordability is at an all-time high.

Putting all of these statistics together suggests that while there is a very long way to go, the housing market is likely to sustain these upward movements in 2012, according to Fleming.

“While we cannot say with a high degree of certainty what 2012 has in store for us, indications based on the latter part of 2011 are that both the broad economy and the housing market are moving toward positive growth in 2012,” Fleming said.

He concedes that some impediments do exist, including slower global economic growth, a recession in Europe, and fiscal and political uncertainty in the United States.

But Fleming says when you look at the big picture, “we are bullish on the prospect of improving economic performance in 2012 from 2011.”
 

Wedgefield Car Show and Chili Cook Off    Feb 11th

Wedgefield Car Show and Chili Cook Off will be held Saturday, February 11th from 11:00AM - 3:00PM at the Macon Pkwy entrance across from the gas station.

Community Fair and Car Show   March 17, 2012

March 17, 2012 Corner Lake Middle School is having a Community Fair and Car Show on campus from 10:00 am until 2:00 pm. Hope to see a great turn out by our East Orlando Community!!

Housing News: 11 Trends from 2011

The National Association of Realtors surveys homebuyers and sellers each year to uncover housing trends and monitor changes taking place in the industry. This year's report highlights a number of trends that haven't been seen in years. Here are just 11 highlights from the 2011 report.

1. In 2011, 37% of homebuyers were first-time buyers - which was down from 50% in 2010.

2. Last year, 88% of homebuyers used the Internet to search for a home. That number was down slightly from a high of 90% in 2009.

3. The typical homebuyer searched for 12 weeks and viewed 12 homes.

4. The number of buyers who purchased their home through a real estate agent or broker climbed to 89% - a share that has steadily increased from 69% in 2001.

5. Nearly 1 out of 4 buyers said the application and approval process was "somewhat more difficult" than expected and 16% reported it was "much more difficult" than expected.

6. About half of home sellers traded up to a larger and more expensive home and 60% traded up to a new home.

7. The top 3 factors influencing neighborhood choice were: the quality of the neighborhood, the convenience to job, and the overall affordability of homes.

8. The typical seller lived in their home for 9 years. That number has increased from 6 years in 2007.

9. Although 61% of sellers said they reduced their asking price at least once, the average home sold for 95% of the listing price.

10. Only 10% of sellers sold their homes without the assistance of a real estate agent. Of those people, 40% knew the buyer prior to the sale.

11. The typical "for sale by owner" home sold for $150,000 compared to $215,000 for the average agent-assisted home sale.

All Contents 2012 The National Association of Realtors.

Medical City to fill out this year

By Marni Jameson, Orlando Sentinel
9:19 p.m. EST, January 8, 2012

The health-care forecast for Central Florida this year looks like a Boston weather report: sunshine, rain, clouds and lots of wind.

On the sunny side, the Medical City at Lake Nona will make a giant step forward, changing the local medical landscape and establishing Central Florida as a leading biosciences destination. Hot winds will prevail as the state argues against President Barack Obama's health-reform law in the U.S. Supreme Court this spring.

Meanwhile, heated debates will also take place in Tallahassee as lawmakers hammer out guidelines for Medicaid and Medicare spending.

Storms will dot the landscape as mergers and electronic medical records move the region's health care toward a system that is more streamlined, cost-effective and digitally linked.

This year, as three major medical institutions open at Lake Nona's Medical City, the city's planners will start to realize the grand vision they have long held — to create one of the nation's leading bioscience meccas.

The University of Florida's Research and Academic Center will open in summer, followed by Nemours Children's Hospital and the Orlando Veteran's Affairs Medical Center in the fall. They join the already opened Sanford-Burnham Research Institute, the UCF College of Medicine, and the Burnett Biomedical Sciences Building, home to the MD Anderson Orlando Cancer Research Institute.

By the end of the year, Medical City's employment is expected to jump 10-fold, to 5,000 jobs, said Jim Zboril, Lake Nona president.

"Medical City will have a profound, positive impact not only on employment, but also on health-care delivery in the region," he said.

"In spite of the economy, our Lake Nona Medical City partners have actually expanded their original scope and are completing construction on time," said Rasesh Thakkar, senior managing director for Tavistock Group, Lake Nona's parent company.

In March, Florida will lead the charge as 26 states go before the U.S. Supreme Court over the fate of Obama's health-care reform law. The contested law requires that all Americans have health insurance by 2014.

In the case State of Florida vs. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, lawyers for the state will argue that the federal mandate exceeds Congress's power to regulate commerce. The court has scheduled 5½ hours of oral arguments — a record amount, though not a surprising one given the decision's historical significance. The high court is likely to rule by late June, as the presidential campaign is moving into high gear.

Until the issue is resolved, many Florida businesses are reluctant to put measures in motion to help enact the reforms. The stall tactics will likely continue to frustrate those who favor the law.

To address the state's budget shortfall, Gov. Rick Scott has proposed a $2 billion cut in Medicaid, which affects not just the poor but also hospitals and shifts the cost burden to the private sector, said Bruce Rueben, president of the Florida Hospital Association.

"I do not believe that will ultimately happen," he said. "I don't think that's realistic or sustainable."

Rueben is cautiously optimistic that the state budget deficit will look a little better this coming year, "which means hospitals may not have to weather as many cuts."

Regardless of what happens, hospitals will continue to make changes designed to create health-delivery systems that pay them based not on the volume of services but on the outcome of those services, Rueben said. "Along with that shift, we will see more clinical integration, meaning patients can be seen and moved more seamlessly and effectively through a continuum of care."

A big part of that shift involves transferring patients' medical records into an electronic system that all medical providers can access. A group of Central Florida health-care leaders is working hard to make that happen. The goal is to reduce the region's health-care costs and improve the quality and timeliness of patient care, said Charlie Stuart, co-executive director of the Central Florida Regional Health Information Organization. Results are already being realized.

A lot of time can be spared, mistakes avoided and information made available if providers can have fast, electronic access to a patient's detailed medical history, he said.

The Central Florida RHIO began collecting records in late 2010 from Orlando Health hospitals and from most of the hospitals in the Florida Hospital system and linking the systems' data. To date, they have captured 1.6 million patients, Stuart said.

This year, the RHIO expects to add records from two more hospitals, from 400 physician practices, and from clinics throughout Central Florida serving the uninsured and under-insured, he said.

"When we can add the region's safety-net patients, real savings will begin," he said. Based on models in other cities, Stuart projects the savings in Central Florida could amount to $15 million to $18 million. Eventually, the group aims to capture records from throughout the region's seven-county area.

To keep up with a rapidly changing environment, more hospitals are merging with other hospitals, a trend that will continue nationwide, according to Rueben. Consolidations help smaller hospitals trim costs and both broaden and improve their services, he said. Last November, Health Central of Ocoee, one of Central Florida's last remaining independent hospitals, finalized its sale agreement with Orlando Health, one of the region's two large, multi-hospital systems.

The two institutions plan to make the marriage official by April 1.

In Volusia County, Bert Fish Medical Center, another independent hospital, had its plans to become part of the Florida Hospital system dashed when a judge ruled the merger talks had not been conducted "in the sunshine" as required by state law. Bert Fish has formed a new committee that has begun to reconsider its options, spokeswoman Cheryl Kennison said.

Report: Orlando to lead nation in 2012 house-price gains

By Mary Shanklin, Orlando Sentinel
12:08 a.m. EST, January 10, 2012

A California real-estate research firm has forecast that Orlando will lead the nation in 2012 for home-price gains, according to a report released Tuesday by Clear Capital.

The analytics company has projected that home prices in Metro Orlando will increase 11.7 percent during the year, compared with 2.1 percent for the nation overall.

The company cited a decreasing number of foreclosures as the prime reason for its forecasted gains. While 44 percent of the region's housing market consisted of bank-owned properties at the end of 2010, by the end of 2011 only a quarter of the market was made up of foreclosed houses, according to Clear Capital.

Some analysts have noted that banks put the brakes on foreclosures last year after reports surfaced of illegal and hastily drawn mortgage documents, but Clear Capital execs said they took that into consideration.

"This could be due to a slowdown in litigation, but the fact remains, since REOs are dropping from one-in-two sales to one-in-four sales, it's allowing the market to recover and not compete with those distress listings," said Alex Villacorta, the firm's director of research.

Orlando was second in the country for home-price increases last year, with prices rising 6.7 percent, the Clear Capital said. Only Dayton, Ohio exceeded that gain with an annual increase of 11.5 percent. Miami had the third-largest gain for last year — 5.6 percent. The Clear Capital report takes into account factors such as sales of the same properties, unemployment rates, and the number of foreclosures on the market.

The company's view is not shared by everyone.

John Tuccillo, chief economist for Florida Realtors, said recently he expects to see only modest price increases statewide this year. Price fluctuations, he said, would depend largely on whether lenders continue to place foreclosed houses on the market gradually.

Others, including Metrostudy Inc.'s Central Florida director, Anthony Crocco, are projecting only modest gains in new-home prices this year as the market continues to contend with the effect of bank-owned houses for sale.

A spokesman for California-based RealtyTrac Inc., which tracks foreclosure filings throughout the country, has said the housing recovery in Florida markets could be hampered this year by banks' "shadow inventory" working its way through the state's court system.

Clear Capital's national forecast called for the year to play out much as the second half of 2011 did, with very subtle price changes. A minimal decline at the beginning of the year is expected to turn into a meager gain by year's end.

Beyond the slow growth nationwide, the analytics company noted that double-digit volatility could be seen in what it called the country's two strongest markets — Orlando and Bakersfield, Calif., for which it projected an 11.1 percent price increase.

The sharpest drops in price are expected in Atlanta, where they are forecast to fall 14.4 percent, and in Los Angeles, with a predicted drop of 10.3 percent.

Top 5 Reasons to Buy a Home in 2012

by Jonathan Slappey on January 6, 2012

The American dream of homeownership is a very feasible aspiration for 2012.

There are many benefits of owning a home.  Yet some first-time buyers are skeptical of purchasing with the uncertainty surrounding the housing market.

The uncertainty many reference when speaking about the housing market involves a specific date when home values will increase. Since no one can pinpoint this date, the word uncertainty (when paired with the housing market) often reveals a negative connotation.

There are some factors we can be certain about in this housing market such as home values rebounding.  This is true; the housing market often moves in cycles.

It’s safe to assume that many Americans harbored the same uncertainty during the George H. W. Bush administration in the early 1990s when the national homeownership rate fell from its previous historic high of 64.4 percent in 1980 to a low of 64.1 percent in 1991.

In the 1960s Lyndon Johnson illustrated a correlation between homeownership and accountability by stating “owning a home can increase responsibility and stake out a man’s place in his community…The man who owns a home has something to be proud of and reason to protect and preserve it.”

This statement is still true more than 50 years later.  There are many reasons to take pride in homeownership such as:

    * Appreciation – Buying a home now (at the current rates) can almost ensure your home’s appreciation in the future.  Mortgage rates are near historic lows and home prices in many parts of the country are down.  This is the perfect recipe for home appreciation.  Additionally, many foreclosed homes are available for a fraction of the original cost.  This can translate to a higher profit if you decide to sell once the market rebounds.

    * Property Tax Deductions – For income tax purposes, real estate property taxes for a vacation home and first home are fully deductible.  The IRS (Publication 530) provides detailed tax information for first-time buyers that may answer many questions about what deductions homeowners are eligible for.

    * Preferential Tax Treatment – If you own your home for more than a year and receive more profit than the allowable exclusion after the sale of your home, the profit will be considered a capital asset.  Capital assets are given preferential tax treatment.

    * Equity Building – Many factors such as credit qualification, loan flexibility, and annual percentage rate (APR) contribute to the final decision of what type of mortgage loan best fits your goals.  Yet, a new trend being used by some homeowners is to actually add money to their monthly payment to decrease the principal balance of their loans at a much faster pace.  This trend is called equity building.  Equity builders usually select a home loan with a lower interest rate (and a shorter term loan such as a 15-year fixed) to help build equity faster.  This rapid payment process allows borrowers to:

    * Pay off the principal balance faster
    * Lock in near-record-low interest rates
    * Shorten the length of their home loan
    * Own their home faster
    * Pay substantially less mortgage interest

Equity building is a beneficial trend that’s becoming more and more popular with fiscally responsible homeowners.  Also, home equity is the largest single source of household wealth for most Americans.

    * Pride – Homeownership offers many benefits to many different types of people.  For some homeowners, playing your music as loud as you want and painting the walls the color of your choice is a perk.  For me, homeownership will permit me to build an NBA regulation size basketball court on my own property.  For my coworker Joel Jarvi, home ownership may allow him to build the indoor slide of his dreams.  No matter who you are, homeownership is a purchase, commitment, and journey that’s sure to bring you pride.

Furthermore, when the uncertainty surrounding the housing market fades and the market rebounds, homeownership may in fact transform that pride to profit through a home sale
 

Canada moving into a seller's market

December 21, 2011

National resale housing activity in Canada rose slightly in November, up from October, according to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Sales activity recorded through the MLS® Systems of real estate Boards and Associations in Canada edged upward by one-half of a percentage point, marking the third straight month in which national activity was up from the previous month’s levels.

“The Canadian housing market is proving resilient in the face of ongoing global economic and financial uncertainty, to the benefit of Canadian economic growth,” said Gary Morse (right), CREA’s president. Activity rose in about 60% of all local markets with a record November in the Halifax-Dartmouth region offsetting a dip in sales in Toronto.

Throughout most months in 2011, actual (not seasonally adjusted) national home sales were in line with the 10-year average. November sales marked a break in that pattern, climbing 7% above the 10-year average and reaching the fourth highest level on record for the month.

The national housing market remains balanced, but is edging closer to seller’s market territory. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 55.5% in November, up from 53.4% in October. This marks the third month in which the national ratio has risen, and it now stands at its highest reading since the spring. Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40% and 60%, just over half of local markets in Canada were balanced in November, while a third of markets qualified as sellers’ markets.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in November 2011 stood at $360,396 (€265,898). This represents a year-over-year increase of 4.6%, its smallest increase since January.

ICREA

2012 Food & Wine Festival

THE FOOD AND WINE FESTIVAL WILL BE ON SATURDAY, MARCH 3, 2012 LOCATED IN TOWN PARK AVALON PARK. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS REGARDING THE EVENT, PLEASE GIVE US A CALL AT THE EAST ORLANDO CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 407-277-5951.

If you missed last year’s event you missed a fabulous outdoor event with music, food, drinks and fun.  This is a MUST for your social calendar!

snowbirds roost, local economy gets boost

From left, Alberta O’Neil, Audrey Warner, Bonnie Clements, Al Murchie and Andy Clements are part of the early flock of snowbirds who annually migrate south from Canada to area beachside accommodations, including the Ocean Trillium Suites condominium, background, in New Smyrna Beach. The retirees own units there, and biking on the beach is popular. (NJ | Bob Koslow.

"We've all been coming here for so long, we're like a family," Bonnie Clements said of the residents who make their oceanfront Trillium Ocean Suites condominium home for the winter. "We're not going to be sitting alone crying, wishing someone was here."

The Clements are part of the annual snowbird migration of tens of thousands of Canadians and others from cold U.S. climates to sunny Volusia and Flagler counties.

Some stay a couple of weeks while others, mostly retirees, linger here up to four, five or six months.

A majority of snowbirds usually arrive shortly after New Year's Day and leave by late March, close to Easter, but some come here as early as October.

"The fall here is the summer we never get in Canada," said Audrey Warner, another Ocean Trillium Suites condo unit owner and winter escapee from Ontario, Canada.

"Sometimes we have to put on sun block and that's just great," said Al Murchie, who is married to Warner.

After a couple years of declining snowbird visitors, local real estate officials who rent and manage condos and homes are expecting a busier winter season.

"I expect a good winter; bookings are up 25 to 30 percent from previous years," said Steve Tyler of Tyler Property Management, which has offices in Palm Coast and Holly Hill. "People are saying if they can afford it or not, they're going south to get away from the snow."

The problem right now is there's not much snow in the Upper Midwest, New England or Canada.

"They're still seeing the grass back home," said Andy Clements.

Snow is what rings the local phones, said Bill Roe, owner of Ocean Properties Real Estate and Management in New Smyrna Beach.

"The more snow there, the better for us," he said. "If severe weather hits, the more last minute bookings we get."

A change Roe has seen in the snowbird market is more last-minute bookings, as short as 30 days out, and fewer bookings a year to six months ahead of time.

"A lot depends on the weather up north," Roe said. "And they're all on the Internet navigating to find the best deal possible so we have to be competitive. But this year, if they wait too long, they may miss out."

The weather, locally, is also a factor. For many snowbirds, it's the main reason for coming here.

They flock to Florida in the fall and winter so they can walk and ride bikes on the beach, fish and play golf.

But while here, they also get out and about, spending money at area restaurants and other businesses.

"If it wasn't for them, many of us would be out of business," Roe said.

Some of the snowbirds interviewed for this article said when they were kids they used to vacation here with their parents.

"I was coming to Florida back in the '60s with my parents and we traveled all around Florida," said Alberta O'Neil, another Canadian snowbird and unit owner at Ocean Trillium Suites.

"About 25 years ago, a group of Canadian teachers bought this bankrupt hotel and made it into a 31-unit condo. About half the owners are American now," O'Neil said.

Many have been coming back so long, they are part of the local scenery.

"I had a cashier at Publix come up to me and say hello and said that she had not seen me for awhile," said Bonnie Clements. "It's so friendly here. We've made friends from all over."

New Smyrna Beach and Daytona Beach tend to attract a heavy dose of Canadians with fewer American snowbirds, while the Flagler County properties are more mixed between the two groups, area property managers say.

Brent Bruns of Hammock Coastal Real Estate in Palm Coast said he sees a lot of New York, Chicago and Wisconsin residents come here for the winter, including a significant number of "younger, family-types."

"February and March are our busy times. We're booked for that time, up about 25 percent from the past couple of years and we could rent double what we have," he said.

Pending Home Sales Leap to Highest Level in 19 Months

Canadians biggest foreign buyers of U.S. real estate

STEVE LADURANTAYE - The Globe and Mail

Now that’s cross-border shopping: Canadians bought $9.4-billion of U.S. real estate in the last year.

Canadians were the largest foreign buyers of U.S. real estate in the 12 months ending March 31, according to the U.S. National Association of Realtors annual survey, accounting for 23 per cent of all sales to foreigners.

China moved into second place at 9 per cent, while Mexico, Britain and India tied at 7 per cent. Together, foreign buyers spent $43-billion.

From the study:

The total U.S. existing home sales market was approximately $1.07-trillion in the 12-months ending in March 2011. Foreign clients purchased an approximate $41-billion share of homes, the same as the previous year. In addition, recent immigrants (who have moved to the U.S. within the past 2 years) and individuals with visas for more than six months purchased an additional $41-billion, for $82-billion, up from $66-billion reported in 2010.

International buyers came from a total of 70 countries; the top five (Canada, Mexico, China, U.K., and India) accounted for 53 percent of transactions. Most states had at least one international transaction, but four states – Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas – accounted for 58 per cent of transactions.

Proximity to the home country, convenience of air transportation, and climate and location appear to be important considerations to purchasers.

The average price paid by international buyers was $315,000, compared to the overall U.S. average of $218,000. Comparable median prices were $200,000 and $170,000. Approximately 61 per cent of international purchasers bought single family detached homes; the comparable figure for overall U.S. sales was 88 per cent. Approximately 3 per cent of international sales involved the purchase of commercial property.

Almost 80 per cent of agents reported that the value of the U.S. dollar had an impact on international sales. U.S. home prices have declined in recent years in both dollars and euros. When the euro’s value relative to the dollar increases, the real price of a U.S. home to a euro based purchaser declines.

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How long will low mortgage rates last?

WASHINGTON– Jan. 4, 2012 – For nine consecutive weeks, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been hovering at or below record lows of 4 percent, pushing housing affordability for homebuyers even higher.

But will these low rates stick around much longer?

The Federal Reserve has vowed to keep rates low through 2013 so rates likely will hang around for a few more months, at least, but whether mortgage rates will stay at the current record-lows, many experts say it’s unlikely.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is expected to inch up to an average 4.5 percent for 2012 and increase to 5.4 percent in 2013, according to Freddie Mac economists’ forecasts.

While that forecast means rates are expected to move higher in the coming months, the rates will still be low by historical standards, economists told the Los Angeles Times. For comparison, 30-year rates averaged more than 16 percent in 1981 and 1982. What’s more, until 2000, rates typically were above 8 percent, Freddie Mac notes.

However, many homebuyers have been unable to take advantage of the low rates. Lenders’ tighter underwriting standards for loans following the housing crisis shut out some buyers who have poor credit, low downpayments or unsteady employment.

Freddie Mac had predicted that home-purchase applications would comprise two-thirds of all mortgage applications by the end of 2011. But the Mortgage Bankers Associations says that about 80 percent of the mortgage applications instead came from homeowners who wanted to refinance.

Source: “Low Mortgage Rates Likely to Continue Through 2012, Experts Say,” Los Angeles Times (Jan. 3, 2012)

© Copyright 2012 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD (301) 215-4688

Retirees could again lead Fla. rebound

WASHINGTON– Jan. 4, 2012 – While international buyers have been heralded as the leaders of a Florida real estate rebound, a recent Census Bureau report on migration trends indicates that U.S. residents from northern climates are once again heading to Florida for retirement.

Between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2011, Florida welcomed 256,000 new residents, or roughly 560 new Floridians each day.

In total population, Florida retained its No. 4 status, but its 19.1 million residents moved closer to bumping New York, with 19.5 million residents, from its No. 3 spot.

Florida ranked No. 3 for attracting new international residents, behind only California and Texas. However, the Sunshine State ranked No. 2 in attracting residents from other U.S. states. During the 15 months of the Census study, 119,000 moved to Florida from other states, a number surpassed only by Texas’ 145,000 new residents.

The state’s growth according to the Census Bureau surpassed earlier estimates by the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic & Business Research, and Sarasota’s Herald-Tribune dug a little deeper to find out why. They found that the UF study relies mainly on new electric utility hookups to judge population growth, while the Census Bureau relies largely on tax returns and Medicare data.

Since the Census Bureau numbers were roughly twice UF’s figures, the Medicare data may have made a difference – implying greater demand from retirees – said University of Central Florida Economist Sean Snaith. “I think with the recovery of the wealth, at least through the rebound of the stock market, that has helped the flow of retirees resume,” Snaith said.

Source: Herald-Tribune, Dec. 21, 2011, Doug Sword

Existing-Home Sales Continue to Climb in November
National Association of Realtors releases November home sales stats

Palm Coast, FL – December 21, 2011 – Existing-home sales rose again in November and remain above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Also released today were periodic benchmark revisions with downward adjustments to sales and inventory data since 2007, led by a decline in for-sale-by-owners.

Although rebenchmarking resulted in lower adjustments to several years of home sales data, the month-to-month characterization of market conditions did not change. There are no changes to home prices or month’s supply.

The latest monthly data shows total existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 4.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.42 million in November from 4.25 million in October, and are 12.2 percent above the 3.94 million-unit pace in November 2010.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said more people are taking advantage of the buyer’s market. “Sales reached the highest mark in 10 months and are 34 percent above the cyclical low point in mid-2010 – a genuine sustained sales recovery appears to be developing,” he said. “We’ve seen healthy gains in contract activity, so it looks like more people are realizing the great opportunity that exists in today’s market for buyers with long-term plans.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 3.99 percent in November from 4.07 percent in October; the rate was 4.30 percent in November 2010; records date back to 1971.

NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said housing affordability conditions have set a new record high. “With record low mortgage interest rates and bargain home prices, NAR’s housing affordability index shows that a median-income family can easily afford a median-priced home,” he said.

“With consumer price inflation rising by more than 3 percent this year, consumers are looking to lock-in steady payments by taking out long-term fixed-rate mortgages. However, the problem remains that some financially qualified families who are willing to stay well within their means are being denied the opportunity to buy in today’s market by the overly restrictive mortgage underwriting situation,” Veissi said.

An elevated level of contract failures continues to hold back a broader sales recovery. Contract failures2 were reported by 33 percent of NAR members in November, unchanged from October but notably above a year ago when it was 9 percent.

Contract failures are cancellations caused by declined mortgage applications, failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price, or other problems including lower conforming mortgage loan limits, home inspections and employment losses.

Also released today are benchmark revisions3 to historic existing-home sales. The 2010 benchmark shows there were 4,190,000 existing-home sales last year, a 14.6 percent revision from the previously projected 4,908,000 sales. For the total period of 2007 through 2010, sales and inventory were downwardly revised by 14.3 percent. The revisions are expected to have a minor impact on future revisions to Gross Domestic Product.

“From a consumer’s perspective, only the local market information matters and there are no changes to local multiple listing service (MLS) data or local supply-and-demand balance, or to local home prices,” Yun explained.

A divergence developed over time between sales reported by MLSs and sales determined by a U.S. Census benchmark; the variance began in 2007. Reasons include growth in MLS coverage areas from which sales data is collected, and geographic population shifts. “It appears that about half of the revisions result solely from a decline in for-sale-by-owners (FSBOs), with more sellers turning to Realtors® to market their homes when the market softened. The FSBO market was overwhelmed during the housing downturn, and since most FSBOs are not reported in MLSs, national estimates of existing-home sales began to diverge based on previous assumptions,” Yun said.

NAR consumer survey data in 2000 showed FSBOs accounted for a 16 percent market share, which fell to a record low 9 percent in 2010.

“In essence, Realtors® began to capture a greater market share. In addition to a decline in FSBO transactions, more builders began marketing new properties through real estate brokers that weren’t completely filtered from the existing-home data,” Yun said. “Some property listings on more than one MLS, and issues related to house flipping, also contributed to the downward revisions.” The new independent benchmark was discussed with government agencies and outside housing market experts, and will allow for annual revisions in the future.

Total housing inventory at the end of November fell 5.8 percent to 2.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.0-month supply4 at the current sales pace, down from a 7.7-month supply in October. “Since setting a record of 4.04 million in July 2007, inventories have trended down and supplies are moving close to price stabilization levels,” Yun said.

The national median existing-home price5 for all housing types was $164,200 in November, down 3.5 percent from a year ago. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales typically sold at deep discounts – accounted for 29 percent of sales in November (19 percent were foreclosures and 10 percent were short sales), compared with 28 percent in October and 33 percent in November 2010.

All-cash sales accounted for 28 percent of purchases in November; they were 29 percent in October and 31 percent in November 2010. Investors make up the bulk of cash transactions.

Investors purchased 19 percent of homes in November, little changed from 18 percent in October and 19 percent in November 2010. First-time buyers accounted for 35 percent of transactions in November, up from 34 percent in October and 32 percent in November 2010.

Single-family home sales rose 4.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million in November from 3.78 million in October, and are 12.9 percent above the 3.50 million-unit level in November 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $164,100 in November, down 4.0 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 470,000 in November and are 6.8 percent higher than the 440,000-unit pace one year ago. The median existing condo price6 was $164,600 in November, which is 0.2 percent below November 2010.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 9.8 percent to an annual pace of 560,000 in November and are 7.7 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $240,200, which is 0.1 percent below November 2010.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 4.3 percent in November to a level of 960,000 and are 15.7 percent higher than November 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $133,400, down 4.0 percent from a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.74 million in November and are 12.3 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $143,300, which is 2.1 percent below November 2010.

Flagler County home sales increased 29.9% over one year ago. The median selling price was $112,500.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 3.6 percent to an annual level of 1.16 million in November and are 11.5 percent higher than November 2010. The median price in the West was $195,300, down 8.4 percent below a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Short sales driving Orlando's home market 

Short-sale prices have also risen during the past year, from $99,000 in November 2010 to $106,000 last month. But the median price of "normal" resales has declined 8 percent during the same 12 months.

"The increase in completed short-sales transactions is heartening," said Orlando Realtor Chairman Mike McGraw, owner of McGraw Real Estate Services of Apopka. "The very tight current lending conditions, plus under-value appraisals, are still causing both enormous slowdowns and outright contract cancellations among short sales. The sooner these short sales are processed through the system, the better it will be for the normal-home market."

Clermont real estate agent Sandy Lawson, who specializes in short sales, said more couples are now listing their homes as short sales because they have lost income or found employment outside the area.

"They lost their jobs and had their hours cut. And they are employed but underemployed. They are working hard," she said. "They've used up savings or retirement, and they just can't do it any more … and they're forced to leave their home now."

The seeming frenzy in short sales helped push up the overall median sales price for single-family homes and condominiums in November — the first time since the pre-bubble days of 2005 that Orlando housing prices rose during what is typically a time of year when prices soften.

The median price for an existing home in the Orlando area during November was $115,000 — up 10 percent from a year ago and about 2 percent from October.

So far in 2011, the median resale price in the core Orlando market has increased 21 percent — despite national firms' forecasts that Orlando home prices would decline throughout 2011 and into 2012.

What will likely affect the local market in coming months is the number of foreclosed properties that banks may dump on the market, which could further depress the market. One factor that could soften the blow of a rise in foreclosure listings: The number of houses listed for sale with the Orlando Realtors is down 33 percent from a year ago, though it inched up about 2 percent from October to November.

At the current pace of sales, the Orlando area has a 5.2-month supply of home inventory. Even though that number is up from October's 4.68-month supply, it was still below the six-month level generally considered a balanced market.

mshanklin@tribune.com or 407-420-5538

Freddie Mac issues 2012 outlook

MCLEAN, Va. – Dec. 19, 2011 – Freddie Mac released its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for December providing five projections for the coming year.

“While the headwinds remain strong going into 2012, there are indications the economy and the housing market are gaining ground, albeit slowly,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac, vice president and chief economist. “Sustained and increased job growth beyond the average monthly payroll gains of 130,000 so far this year (ending in November) are essential. In housing, look for the rental market to lead the way and for some improvement in the single-family space in parts of the country.

Outlook highlights for 2012

• Economic growth will likely strengthen to about 2.5 percent in 2012.

• The U.S. unemployment rate will decline but likely remain above 8 percent.

• Mortgage rates will likely remain very low, at least through mid-2012.

• Housing activity will be better in 2012, but not robust.

• Expect less single-family originations but more multifamily lending in 2012.

© 2011 Florida Realtors®

Osceola tops state for foreclosure actions

By Mary Shanklin, Orlando Sentinel
 
December 15, 2011
Osceola County was ranked No. 1 in the state for foreclosure filings in November, according to a report released Thursday by RealtyTrac Inc.

The Central Florida county, home to many of the region's tourism workers, had one foreclosure filing for every 227 homes — a far greater proportion than the state's overall rate of one filing for every 358 homes. Across the nation in November, there was one filing for every 579 homes.

So Osceola had more than double the rate of foreclosure actions as the U.S. as a whole last month.

Kissimmee real estate broker Kim Goodwin said she expects to see foreclosures churning in the Osceola market for months or even years to come. She said she anticipates that Bank of America foreclosures, in particular, will pick up and that the pace will continue for repossessed properties being sold by Wells Fargo, GMAC and JPMorgan Chase.

"We will probably be busy with this at least for the next few years," said Goodwin, a board member of the Osceola County Association of Realtors.
 

The four-county Orlando metropolitan area had 2,806 foreclosure filings during November — down 36 percent from a month earlier and 24 percent from a year ago.

The decrease followed several months of mounting foreclosures as courts began processing more cases after almost an entire year of judicial slowdowns sparked by concerns about illegal mortgage documents.

Daren Blomquist, spokesman for California-based RealtyTrac, said it's not yet clear how December will turn out. On one hand, he said, banks may be interested in moving on properties so they can take losses by year's end for tax purposes. On the other hand, he said, Fannie Mae has declared a moratorium on evicting foreclosed owners during the Christmas holidays.

One possible predictor of Metro Orlando's foreclosure future: Initial filings in November, for homeowners just entering foreclosure, posted their first year-over-year increase since the spring of 2010, Blomquist said.

"It does tell me we are still on the path to see a lot of those started foreclosures be completed early to mid-year next year," he said. "We're likely to see more of the scheduled auctions and REOs ["real estate owned," or bank-owned, properties] in the first and second quarter."

Blomquist said he was skeptical of reports that Fannie Mae, the nation's largest backer of mortgages, was planning to release large numbers of foreclosed properties simultaneously in the near future. But, he added, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have indicated they want to expedite their foreclosures and are starting to get that message across to those mortgage servicers that are lagging behind.

mshanklin@tribune.com or 407-420-5538

June 22nd
 

Florida’s existing home, condo sales rise in May 2011

ORLANDO, Fla. – June 21, 2011 – Florida’s existing home and existing condo sales rose in May, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®. Existing home sales increased 3 percent last month with a total of 17,228 homes sold statewide compared to 16,790 homes sold in May 2010, according to Florida Realtors. Statewide sales of existing condos last month rose 17 percent compared to the year-ago sales figure.

Twelve of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported higher existing home sales in May; 14 MSAs also had higher condo sales. It’s the sixth consecutive month that Florida Realtors has reported higher year-over-year existing home and existing condo sales statewide.

“With low mortgage rates and a broad inventory of homes at affordable prices, qualified buyers are realizing that there may never be a better time to find the home they’ve been dreaming of in Florida,” said 2011 Florida Realtors President Patricia Fitzgerald, manager/broker-associate with Illustrated Properties in Hobe Sound and Mariner Sands Country Club in Stuart. “Consult a local Realtor® about qualification criteria and to find out more about opportunities in your local housing market.” 

May 26th 2011

State's condo sales jump 17 percent in April

Existing home and existing condo sales both rose in April, according to the latest housing data released by Florida REALTORS®. Existing home sales increased 2 percent last month with a total of 17,192 homes sold statewide compared to 16,781 homes sold in April 2010. Statewide sales of existing condos last month rose 17 percent compared to the year-ago sales figure. Twelve of Florida's metropolitan statistical areas reported higher existing home sales in April; 14 MSAs also had higher condo sales. It’s the fifth consecutive month that Florida REALTORS® has reported higher year-over-year existing home and existing condo sales statewide.

Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $131,700.  April’s statewide existing home median price was 4.3 percent higher than it was in March.

In Florida’s year-to-year comparison for condos, 8,987 units sold statewide last month compared to 7,703 units in April 2010 for an increase of 17 percent. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $91,900; April’s statewide existing condo median price was 9 percent higher than it was in March.

May 19th 2011

Foreign Buyers Recognize Value of Home Ownership in U.S.

The U.S. continues to remain a top destination for foreign buyers as international purchases surged by $16 billion this year, one of the highest increases in recent years.

By Leanne Jernigan

May 12th, 2011

Orlando apartment rents expected to rise this year

As reported in the Orlando Sentinel

May 9th: Article Recently Published in the East Orlando Sun-

 "Avalon has an app for that":

April 1st, 2011

2011 Rebound: Prices low, investors back

NEW YORK  – Plenty of signs point to the housing market finally bottoming out and moving into rebound mode this year, experts say in a recent article in The Wall Street Journal.

Investors, who were burned when the housing bubble burst in 2006, are back on the market, betting on a rebound and snagging up houses and condos in all-cash deals.

What’s more, housing is at the most affordable it has been in decades nationwide — when home prices and average incomes are taken into account, according to analysts at Moody’s Analytics. The cost of a house is equal to about 19 months of income for an average family, which is at the lowest level in 35 years. (Prices generally average nearly two years of pay.)

“Pricing is down so much in some markets that when you analyze renting versus owning it makes much more sense to own,” Michael Larson, a real-estate analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter, Fla., told The Wall Street Journal.

Housing prices likely will bottom in 2011, says Scott Simon, a managing director at the money-management firm Pimco in Newport Beach, Calif. While he expects housing prices to possibly drop another 5 percent, he says that is a small amount when some markets prices have dropped by half or more since housing prices started falling in 2006.

Source: “Why 2011 may be the end of the housing crash,” The Wall Street Journal (Feb. 27, 2011)NY– March 4, 2011

March 25, 2011

March 16th, 2011

5 factors that affect home values

Today's buyers are less willing to overlook 'incurable' defects

March 4, 2011

Sellers better off using a Realtor EMERYVILLE, Calif. – March 1, 2011 – Real estate website HomeGain conducted a survey of 1,000 sellers to gauge their opinion on For Sale By Owner (FSBO) compared to using a Realtor. Of the sellers surveyed, 83 percent used a Realtor while 17 percent attempted to sell their house on their own. Of those who used a Realtor, 59 percent sold their home; of FSBOs, only 39 percent successfully found a buyer and closed. Of the successful sellers who used a Realtor, 88 percent said they would do so again; of all Realtor-represented sellers, 81 percent said they would use a Realtor again. Of FSBOs who successfully sold their homes on their own, 71 percent would attempt to do so again. However, the survey also found that nearly a quarter of FSBOs ultimately turned to a Realtor to help them sell their properties. Source: RISMedia (02/25/11)